German study pours cold water on widespread EV use

Research indicates electric cars are unlikely to take off until issues of price, range and youth appeal are addressed

The German government has earmarked €1 billion for EV development and marketing, but technology analyst Gartner says it’s barking up the wrong tree, for now at least.

While Germany is often touted as a world leader in greening up, from household to factory to roads, Gartner’s recent study of German consumer readiness for EVs has turned up some surprising results.

According to the study, not only do Germans display little interest in EVs, but even the appeal of diesel power appears to be on the wane, with tastes swinging towards petrol.

The study bumps up against the German government’s announcement in May that it would sink an additional €1 billion (US$1.4 billion) into R&D grants to help speed up EV acceptance. Germany has set a target of 1 million electric vehicles on its roads by 2020.

The report concludes that all-electric powertrain technologies still fall far short of desirability among consumers on both cost and practicality. The study, run over Q1-Q2 this year, confirmed that the majority of buyers are looking to a petrol powertrain for their next vehicle purchase, with hybrid systems overtaking diesel to come in second – a marked rise over last year.

Diesel power ranked third, followed by natural gas. EVs brought up the rear of the field with only 16 per cent of car buyers prepared to consider them. Of them, about a fifth would not go so far as to pay a premium for an EV over a comparably sized, conventionally powered vehicle, and only eight per cent would let it extend to €8,000 (AUD$11,034) or more.

Of the consumers prepared to consider an EV, nearly 50 per cent would need to see 30-40 per cent operational cost savings over a conventional car to justify the purchase.

Gartner analyst and VP Thilo Koslowski said in a statement that while most Germans can easily see the environmental and socioeconomic benefits of EVs, they’re yet to meet practical usability and cost-saving requirements.

“To expand from early to mainstream EV adopters in Germany, automotive companies must focus on technology innovations, offer pricing strategies that are aligned with established premiums for diesel and hybrid powertrain options and develop diverse EV model mixes targeted at younger consumer segments that have higher EV interest levels than older demographics,” he said.

Gartner suggests the German government is on the wrong track to achieve any of its goals in coaxing constituents towards electric drivetrains. If it wants to get consumers buying EVs, the report says, sinking resources into large-scale public charging infrastructure is not the way to go about it. The primary point of concern for buyers is range anxiety stemming from underdeveloped battery packs. Instead, the analyst says, the key to substantial sales of EVs lies in boosting R&D funding to advance battery technologies and home-charging systems.

To reduce dependency on fossil fuels and address environmental issues, the report recommends disseminating funds more evenly; shared with other powertrain technologies that assist to that end (hybrid, cleaner burning fossil fuel engines), and boost incentives towards public transport, ‘usage-based’ business models and car-sharing programs.

The analyst is sticking with its 2009 prediction that EV and PHEV demand in industrialised markets will reach 5-8 per cent of all total vehicle sales by 2020, rising to 15-20 per cent by 2030.

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